Northwestern: A Quick First Look

This is a huge game for the Bears. HUGE!

Northwestern’s only FCS loss this season was at home to McNeese and by only two points, 18-20. We barely got by the Cowboys. And the Demons have won three straight after that.

Last week they beat Texas State by jumping out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. They won 23-10 even though they only had 290 yards of offense. Texas State lost three fumbles (two inside the redzone), threw a pick and was just 1-of-5 in the redzone, including THREE missed field goals.

It was a pretty strange game on paper for the Bobcats. Texas State’s quarterback (also their leader in rushes) threw for just 65 yards in the game, completing 12 passes for 5.4 yards per. The team’s leading rusher only had 7 carries in the game, but he had 104 yards. The qb and another rb carried the ball 18 and 17 times. They totalled 247 yards rushing.

The last four Texas State possessions all reached the redzone. And they ended like this:

• fumble
• fumble
• missed fg
• downs

Yikes. Looks like Northwestern got lucky like we did against McNeese.

The Playoff Picture

Heading into the final three games, we know that any loss almost definitely knocks the Bears out of the playoff picture. But, Purple Thunder has asked an interesting question:

Question: If we were to win out and finish 2nd in the SLC, what are our chances of getting an at-large bid to the national playoff? Would it be influenced by a top 25 ranking, power rating, or what?

Here’s my response —

The SLC is a mid-tier FCS conference, currently 8th in FCS RPI (out of 15) according to RealTimeRPI.

Having said that, in 2009 and 2005, 2004 and 2002, the conference got two teams in.
And in 2001, there were even three SLC teams in the playoffs.

2009 – McNeese was the second team in with 9-3 (6-1).
2005 – Nicholls got in with a 6-4 (4-1) record.
2004 – Northwestern 8-4 (4-1)

Going back to 2003, every time an SLC team finished with a one-loss conference record, they got into the playoffs.

We’re currently 35th in the FCS in RPI. So, we’ve still got some serious work to do to get into the top ~20. Winning could help since Northwestern and Texas State aren’t terribly far behind in RPI. But, I think we’d still need some help from other teams above us losing. Someone with a math degree would have to run those numbers.

(Yes, I know that you just have to win the next one before you worry about anything else, but that doesn’t mean we as fans have to ignore the possibilities.)

More Lamar Stories

Lamar head football coach Ray Woodard reacts as the defense is unable to stop Central Arkansas from scoring in the sedond half at Provost Umphrey Stadium on Saturday, October 22, 2011. Valentino Mauricio/The Enterprise Photo: Valentino Mauricio / BE

I’ll update if others pop up, but here’s one I just found from the Beaumont Enterprise:

Lamar loses early lead, game to UCA

“I kicked myself as soon as we did it,” Woodard said of the fake punt call from the Lamar 32. “It was dumb on my part. We shouldn’t have done it. Not at that point in the game. … It worked in practice.”

Lamar Stories from Saturday

“Another slow start on defense, very similar to the Nicholls game,’ Conque said. “We go on the road and that seems to be our M.O. The offense had to keep pace and they did a nice job with that. The second half we got the ground game going and reduced their opportunities on offense quite a bit.

“It seems like we have to have our backs to the wall before we start playing our best,” said UCA cornerback Desmond Wilcox…

“Our players were yelling for [Jestin Love] to ‘get down, get down’ but I told them, ‘That dude’s not getting down; he’s going to try to score.”

“…We got a couple of play-action opportunities. One on a key first down to Chris McKnight and we went big ball to Al Lasker (for a touchdown) off play action. As they were committed more to the run, we had the opportunity to take some shots downfield.

“We did a lot of good things out there, but we didn’t do enough good things,” said [Ray Woodard, Lamar’s head coach]. “I was really pleased with our play in the first half until that one play when their guy (running back Terence Bobo) took the pass all of the way down the sideline (51 yards for the touchdown to force the 17-17 tie). We didn’t defend that play well at all.

The McNeese Offense

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS TO WATCH

Cody Stroud (#18) has held on to the starting quarterback spot, even with dual-threat qb Riley Dodge (#11) transferring in from North Texas and splitting time to start the season. Dodge has been out with an injury since the SELA game three weeks ago. That has taken away the competition and left the mostly immobile Stroud as the quarterback. If Dodge is back this week, he certainly is mobile.

McNeese is usually a very balanced team offensively and that has primarily been true this season. But after a totaling just 78 yards rushing against Northwestern State, McNeese has added a new wrinkle to their offense, using their wildcat package last week in the loss to Texas State.

Lining up in the quarterback position in the wildcat is another North Texas transfer, wide receiver Darius Carey (#16). Carey played quarterback in high school and is a spectacular athlete. He’s the leading receiver, the punt returner and is one of the deep guys on kick returns.

When he’s lined up at receiver, the Cowboys have several options at the tailback spot. The top two guys are just 5-9 and around 200lbs. Andre Anderson (#22) is a senior tailback transfer from Michigan State. He is continuing where he left off in 2010, again leading McNeese in rushing. He had a 100-yard game against us last season. Marcus Wiltz (#3) was injured and didn’t play in Conway a year ago. But he’s back this year and is averaging 5.5 yard per carry. The other tailback, Champlain Babin (#26), may be as good or better, but he has missed games again this season with injuries.

After Carey, the receiver position is split pretty evenly between about 4 guys. Ernes Celestie (#17), Wes Briscoe (#85) and Damion Dixon (#14) are others two watch for. Briscoe is the guy who hurt us the most last season and scored their go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Babin is a threat out of the backfield, but not if he’s still injured. Anderson also has a few catches.

Their offensive line returns guys with experience, two starters from last season and a starter from 2009 that missed 2010 with an injury. They aren’t huge (avg 6-3/294), but they’ve paved the way for McNeese’s 162 ypg rushing.

The Cowboys Are Coming!

I’ve probably enjoyed the McNeese series more than any other opponent since joining the SLC because I’ve been able to travel to Lake Charles both times and meet some of their fans. The title of this blog post is also the title of an e-mail I get on Sunday of game week each year since 2007 from one of their fans.

McNeese holds a 3-2 lead in the all-time series. But it’s a 2-2 tie since UCA’s move to the Southland in 2007. And no team has won while on the road.

Because Lamar is back playing SLC football, we got bumped from being McNeese’s final game of the season so they could renew their rivalry with Lamar in that slot. The “Red Beans and Rice Bowl” is now a mid-season game, and McNeese has to return to Conway for a second year in a row.

We’ve been able to essentially ruin any hope that McNeese had of the playoffs the last two trips to Conway. While this isn’t the final game of the season, it certainly still carries some playoff implications with both teams but even more so the Bears this year.

Last year’s game was a wild one. I even forgot how wild it was until reading the recaps. UCA jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first 7:05 of the game and then didn’t put any points on the board for the next three quarters of football. McNeese came back to score 14 straight and cut it to a 7-point deficit, all of that happening in the first quarter. And the Bears were actually down 24-21 until scoring the winning touchdown on a 10-yard touchdown pass to Ken Robey.

But that still left 3:29 for McNeese. You may not remember it, but McNeese threw an interception. The Bears went 3-and-out and were forced to punt from their own 10. The Cowboys returned the ball all the way to the UCA 27 with 1:12 remaining. After a pass down to the 4 yard line, The Bears held on four consecutive plays – a run for no gain and three incomplete passes – and escaped with the 28-24 win.

It was ugly for both teams. McNeese threw two picks, lost two fumbles, and had a field goal blocked. The Bears fumbled three times, losing two of them. UCA couldn’t run the ball and finished with just 59 yards rushing. The Bears were 0-for-2 on fourth down attempts and a disappointing 4-for-13 on third down. That’s just the condensed version of everything that happened in that game!

This is the first of three remaining games that will put the Bears on tv. It will be the first time that many in Louisiana and Texas have seen the new turf. And it could be important for recruiting to have the stands full of fans, especially the student section. Last year’s game had an attendance of just 5,466. Let’s hope for double that this weekend.