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2016 Season
https://www.ucafans.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7716		 Page 6 of 9
Author:  JRK [ Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
FCS Week 4

SLC - 5/5 (16/24 season)

UCA at A-State, 28-23
Abilene Christian at SFA, 30-41..........should be a battle next week
Northwestern State at SELA, 24-34
Nicholls State at South Alabama, 40-41, OT ..yikes....SA beat Miss State...Colonels are not to be ignored
McNeese State at Incarnate Word, 42-34
Sam Houston State at Houston Baptist, 52-16


Others:

Samford at Chattanooga, 21-41
Tennessee Tech at UTM, 23-44
Mississippi State at UMass, 47-35
Missouri State at Kansas State, 0-35
Bowling Green at Memphis, 3-77
La Tech at Middle Tennessee, 34-38
Author:  JRK [ Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
FCS Week 5

Now that there are more data points (called games) the ratings systems can actually do some comparisons that begin to have some meaning. Sagarin is one of the better rating services for all D1. Of course, better with "direction" (who likely wins) than "magnitude" (scoring margin). What models cannot possibly take into account is who wants it more and oddball events that can turn games.

SLC:

UCA by 17 at Abilene Christian...........remember two years ago........
Sam Houston State by 15 at SFA
Nicholls State at McNeese State by 13.........this might be a really good game
SELA at Lamar by 6
Houston Baptist at Western Kentucky by 54
Incarnate Word at Texas State by 17

Others:

Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa by 11
Chattanooga by 29 at East Tennessee State
Illinois State at North Dakota State by 20
Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina by 4
Wofford at Samford by 1........toss up........hoping for a Samford win
Missouri State at Indiana State by 9
Texas at Oklahoma State by 5..........pretty even match up....
OU by 2 at TCU......OU has to win to stay relevant
Memphis at Ole Miss by 12........anyone picking a Norvell upset?
UTEP at La Tech by 22
Author:  treyuca [ Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
This will be the first tough opponent on Memphis's schedule. It's hard to say just how good they are. But I guess the same can somewhat be said about Ole Miss. They certainly put it all together last week against Georgia.

It'd be hard to pick Memphis, but that doesn't mean I won't be cheering for the Tigers.
Author:  JRK [ Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
Below are the Week 4 FCS rankings based on Sagarin ratings:

1 - North Dakota State
2 - Jacksonville State
3 - Eastern Washington
4 - Northern Iowa
5 - Chattanooga
6 - Western Illinois
7 - Sam Houston State
8 - James Madison
9 - South Dakota State
10 - Harvard
11 - Richmond
12 - Montana
13 - Illinois State
14 - Charleston Southern
15 - Cal Poly

Interestingly, A-State would be #15 so the Bears, in effect, defeated the #15 FCS team.

SLC teams are lagging. Besides SHS at #7, the highest ranked teams would be:

22 - UCA
29 - McNeese
55 - SFA
56 - Lamar

The #1 FCS conference is the Missouri Valley (who else?) with an average rating per team of 57 (SHS is #1 in SLC at just 61). The SLC average is a scorching 40 and is still just 9th out of 14 conferences. Just FYI.....the SWAC/East is last of all D1 conferences at a paltry 20 while the SEC/West is 1 overall at 86.
Author:  FOOT84 [ Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
treyuca wrote:
This will be the first tough opponent on Memphis's schedule. It's hard to say just how good they are. But I guess the same can somewhat be said about Ole Miss. They certainly put it all together last week against Georgia.

It'd be hard to pick Memphis, but that doesn't mean I won't be cheering for the Tigers.



Amen...GO TIGERS
Author:  FOOT84 [ Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
treyuca wrote:
This will be the first tough opponent on Memphis's schedule. It's hard to say just how good they are. But I guess the same can somewhat be said about Ole Miss. They certainly put it all together last week against Georgia.

It'd be hard to pick Memphis, but that doesn't mean I won't be cheering for the Tigers.


AMEN...GO TIGERS
Author:  JRK [ Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
Sagarin ratings were 15-1 on games below. The margin of victory on five games were within 3 pints of Sagarin prediction.

FCS Week 5

Now that there are more data points (called games) the ratings systems can actually do some comparisons that begin to have some meaning. Sagarin is one of the better rating services for all D1. Of course, better with "direction" (who likely wins) than "magnitude" (scoring margin). What models cannot possibly take into account is who wants it more and oddball events that can turn games.

SLC:

UCA by 17 at Abilene Christian, 58-27
Sam Houston State by 12 vs SFA, 63-28
Nicholls State at McNeese State by 13, 13-38
SELA at Lamar by 6, 14-38
Houston Baptist at Western Kentucky by 54, 3-50
Incarnate Word at Texas State by 17, 17-48

Others:

Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa by 11, 21-42
Chattanooga by 29 at East Tennessee State, 37-7
Illinois State at North Dakota State by 20, 10-31
Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina by 4, 38-42
Wofford at Samford by 1, 26-28
Missouri State at Indiana State by 9, 45-24
Texas at Oklahoma State by 5, 31-49
OU by 2 at TCU, 52-46
Memphis at Ole Miss by 12, 28-48
UTEP at La Tech by 22, 7-28
Author:  JRK [ Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
Below are the Week 5 FCS rankings based on Sagarin ratings:

1 - North Dakota State
2 - Northern Iowa
3 - Jacksonville State
4 - Eastern Washington
5 - Chattanooga
6 - South Dakota State
7 - Sam Houston State
8 - James Madison
9 - Youngstown State
10 - Montana
11 - Villanova
12 - Charleston Southern
13 - Western Illinois
14 - Richmond
15 - Illinois State

Interestingly, A-State would be #15 so the Bears, in effect, defeated the #15 FCS team.

Besides SHS at #7, the highest ranked teams would be:

20 - UCA
24 - McNeese
48 - Lamar
59 - SFA

Samford would be #21 and A-State would be #13 in FCS.
Author:  BearCountry [ Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
A lot of "what ifs" this season but try this one out.

UCA would be undefeated at 5-0 with wins over an FBS and a top 25 Samford team if "we hadn't given them 14 points on defense".

Just imagine that! =D>
Very proud of this team! =D>
Author:  JRK [ Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
FCS Week 6

Sagarin 12-3/27-4

SLC:

SFA by 1 at Nicholls State, 28-35 (2OTs)...Colonels came 14 down to win
McNeese State by 11 at SELA, 24-31....Lions looked really good in H2
Sam Houston State by 29 at Incarnate Word, 63-48
Lamar by 10 at Abilene Christian, 38-10
Kentucky Wesleyan at Northwestern State.........KWU is D2, 7-49
UCA vs BY-U

Others:

Samford by 6 at Furman, 38-21
Temple at Memphis by 6, 27-34
Texas at OU by 14 at Dallas, 40-45
Georgia Southern by 5 at A-State, 26-27
Northern Iowa by 15 at South Dakota, 25-28
North Dakota State by 24 at Missouri State, 27-3
Youngstown State by 2 at Illinois State, 20-6
Mercer at Chattanooga by 15, 31-52
Western Kentucky at La Tech by 1, 52-55
SMU at Tulsa by 16, 40-43(OT)
Tennessee at Texas A&M by 8. 38-45 (2OT)
Author:  JRK [ Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
FCS Week 6 Ratings based on Sagarin

1 - North Dakota State (49th overall in D1)
2 - Jacksonville State (81st)
3 - Eastern Washington (83rd)
4 - Northern Iowa (90th)
5 - Chattanooga (91st)
6 - Youngstown State (92nd)
7 - South Dakota State ( 94th)
8 - Sam Houston State (98th)
9 - James Madison (101st)
10 - Montana (106th)

Others:

21 - Samford (132)
22 - UCA (133)
33 - McNeese (155)
41 - Lamar (165)

A-State is 113th overall.
Author:  BearCountry [ Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
The SLC must be waaaaaaaaaay down. The other teams fan boards are DEAD.
Author:  JRK [ Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
FCS Week 7

Sagarin: 11-4/38-8

SLC:

UCA by 3 at McNeese State, 35-0
SELA at SFA by 4, 58-34.......Lions scored 28 straight
Abilene Christian at Sam Houston State by 34, 21-48
Northwestern State at Lamar by 15, 31-32
Nicholls State by 17 at Houston Baptist, 27-30 (OT)

Other:

VMI at Samford by 17, 21-55
South Alabama at A-State by 3, 7-17
Memphis by 15 at Tulane, 24-14
Iowa State at Texas by 12, 6-27
Chattanooga by 6 at The Citadel.......two unbeaten, 14-22
Villanova at Richmond by 1.......both 5-1, 0-23
South Dakota State at North Dakota State by 14, 19-17...Jackrabbits score with 1 second left
Tulsa at Houston by 22, 31-38
La Tech by 10 at UMass, 56-28
Kansas State at OU by 11, 17-38
Author:  JRK [ Sun Oct 16, 2016 6:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
FCS Week 7 Ratings based on Sagarin

1 - North Dakota State (53rd overall in D1)
2 - South Dakota State (82nd)
3 - Eastern Washington (86th)
4 - Youngstown State (87th)
5 - Northern Iowa (91st)
6 - Montana (94th)
7 - Jacksonville State (95th)
8 - Chattanooga (96th)
9 - Sam Houston State (104th)
10 - James Madison (105th)

Others:

12 - UCA (112)
17 - Samford (117)
49 - Lamar (174)
58 - McNeese (185)
63 - SELA (191)
80 - Nicholls State (208)
81 - SFA (209)

A-State is 108th overall.
Author:  JRK [ Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2016 Season
http://www.ucasports.com/news/2016/10/17/football-lofton-earns-ucas-sixth-slc-weekly-honor.aspx

Nice job by Jaylon to get SLC Defensive POW.........
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