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As the last phase of the regular season is getting ready, let's see where the SLC stands....usually a minimum of 7 D1 wins to be eligible for an at-large bid............

6-0 McNeese State...already 6 D1......... at LU and Abilene and home vs SHS....has inside path to win SLC for auto bid.........if not, then should get at least one more D1 win......

4-1 UCA.....only 4 D1....home vs SELA, SFA and SHS and at Nicholls......must win 3 of 4.......very doable and maybe win out..........unlikely to win SLC if another loss as McNeese has tiebreaker....best path to SLC is to win out (have tiebreaker over SHS) and have McNeese lost 2x........

4-1 SHS ......only 5 D1....at UCA and McNeese at home vs Northwestern State and also home vs TAM-Commerce but they are D2.......looks like a tough row with road games at McNeese and UCA.........might not even get to 6 D1s.....could still win SLC

3-2 SELA......only 3 D1.....at UCA and Abilene and at home vs Incarnate Word and Nicholls.....have to win out to get to 7 D1.......could still win SLC......McNeese has tiebreaker

2-2 UIW........not eligible........

SFA, ACU and LU are 2-3 in SLC......highly unlikely to win SLC with 3 losses........SFA and LU have only 2 D1s and can only get to 6......... ACU has 2 D1 but has 5 D1 remaining so have to win out..........at IWU, Northwestern State and Northern Colorado and at home vs McNeese and SELA

SLC Update after 10/31/15 games...........


McNeese, 7-0/8-0..........aleady playoff elgible.........at ACU and home vs SHS

SHS, 5-1/6-.....at UCA and McNeese and home vs NWS......could still win SLC

UCA, 5-1/5-3.......at Nicholls and home vs SFA and SHS........needs McNeese to lose 2x

None of the below can win SLC even if they win out...........very long shot for playoffs if they win out.......

LU, 3-3/4-4
SELA, 3-3/4-4
UIW, 3-3/4-4.......ot playoff eligible in transition
SFA, 3-3/3-5

No disrespect JRK, but this playoff talk doesn't even need to be addressed right now....there is too much football left to be played.

SLC Update after 11/7/15 games...........

Might be iffy getting three teams into playoffs.........SHS probably needs to win out.........UCA needs to take care of Nicholls this week

McNeese, 8-0/9-0..........aleady playoff elgible.........at ACU next week

SHS, 5-2/6-3.....at UCA and home vs NWS...... has only 5 D1 wins

UCA, 6-1/6-3.......at Nicholls and home vs SHS........at best can tie with MSU



No one else can get to even 6 D1 wins other than UIUW who is not post-season eligible..........

UIW, 4-3/5-4.......not playoff eligible in transition.have Lamar at homeand HBU on road......getting to 6-3 in SLC with two wins would be solid achievement

Beau......as long as the players do not take Nicholls for granted not sure I see where us fans thinking ahead hurts..........could not agree more that the next game is THE most important for Bears........

JRK, where I come from, you play them one at a time...fan or player.

I will say the situation has improved, but until we take care of business this week, I will be damned if I am looking ahead....it is just too dang dangerous and it can come back and bite one in the a$$....

Reading some of the FCS sites, looks like the finale between UCA v SHSU will be a defacto play in game. May be the case even if the bears stumble in Thibodaux.

UCA will take care of Nicholls to get the 7th win.

Sam game will be big for them.

Don't think the Bears will overlook this one, but it still doesn't guarantee they
will play well. Sometimes the best of preparation and focus doesn't yield
anything positive. But this team has shown they can muster what it takes
to win the game. Bears will either blow the Colonels out...or it will come down
to the wire. I say UCA by 17...

_______________________________
BLEED PURPLE - SWEAT GRAY

I have witnessed every game the Bears have played at Thibodeaux. We have had some good teams go down there and not play well and get beat. It is just a VERY hard trip to make.

I would be more than satisfied with a three point win.

Let's use the hypothetical scenario for a minute...UCA wins out and finishes
8-3, 8-1. Mcneese wins out and gets the auto bid. The Bears get an at large
bid. What are the chances that UCA bids enough to get a home game?

______________________________
BLEED PURPLE - SWEAT GRAY

Hard to say...I suspect we will bid for most, if not all all the rounds.
The first games would be Thanksgiving weekend and that would be a tough situation to get a home crowd.

i think for a playoff game thanksgiving wknd, you'll get the crowd.

If that happens we will bid the minimum $25k..and most likely not get to host. But if we host that will be awesome!

Needless to say a Bears win vs Sam goes a long way to the playoffs and a loss makes it pretty difficult........would then depend on how some other teams do, generosity of the committee, how well we played vs Sam, etc......

Note below number in parens (x) is number of D1 wins so far.........

Looking at FCS Coaches Poll, STATS FCS Poll and Sagarin Ratings, there seems to be a pretty good consensus on Top 13:

1. North Dakota State (MVC).........(8)......vs Missouri State
2. Jacksonville State (OVC)....(9)...........vs Murray State
3. South Dakota State (MVC)......(8).....at Western Illinois
4. Illinois State (MVC).....(8).....vs South Dakota
5. McNeese State (SLC)......(8)....at Lamar
6. Wiiliam & Mary (Colonial).......(8).......at Richmond
7. Coastal Carolina (Big South)......(9).......at Liberty
8. Chattanooga (Southern).......(7)...............at Florida State
9. James Madison (Colonial)......(8) ...vs Villanova
10. Portland State (Big Sky)...(7)......at Eastern Washington
11. Northern Iowa (MVC).......(6)...............vs Southern Illinois
12. Sam Houston State (SLC)........(6) ........at UCA
13. Charleston Southern (Big South)........(8).......at Bama

The Next 7 (#14-20) are certainly at risk:

14. Southern Utah (Big Sky)..(6).......vs Northern Arizona
15. Richmond (Colonial)......(7)......vs William & Mary
16. Harvard (Ivy)
17. Montana (Big Sky)..(6).....at Montana State
18. NC A&T (MEAC)......(8) ........at NC Central
19. Dartmouth (Ivy)
20. The Citadel (Southern)......(7).............at South Carolina

Of course, the Ivy League stays home to study for finals and do not play the playoffs.

The next several teams are:

Fordham (Patriot).....(9).......open
Youngstown State (MVC).......(5)....at Indiana State
Eastern Washngton (Big Sky)..(6).....vs Portland State
Eastern Kentucky (OVC)......(6).......at Eastern illinois
Eastern Illinois (OVC)..........(6) ......vs Eastern KY
Northern Arizona (Big Sky)....(6)...at Southern Utah
Villanova (Colonial).......(6).........at James Madison
UCA (SLC)........(7) vs Sam Houston State

Auto Qualfiers:
Big Sky: 1 of 5 teams can still win and have 7 D1 wins
Big South: Charleston Southern
Colonial: 1 of 4 can still win and have D1 wins
MEAC: NC A&T or Bethune Cookman can still win and have 7 D1 wins
MVC: NDSU, IL State or SDSU can still win and have 7 D1 wins
Northeast: Either Duquense or St Francis can win but only DuQuense can get to 7 D1 wins..the two teams play Sat
OVC: Jacksonville State ......has tie breaker over the other teams who could tie
Patriot: Colgate ........has tie breaker over Fordham.......
Pioneer: Dayton.......has tiebreaker over 2nd place
Southern: Chattanooga has tiebreaker over Citadel
SLC: McNeese ........has tiebreaker over UCA

Observations:

Really good weekend of big games coming up. There are 24 slots in playoffs.....3 will be taken by teams (Northeast, Patriot and Pioneer champs) that would not be an at-large pick so only 21 slots in play. (Not sure what happens if an AQ conference champ does not get to 7 wins) The 8 other slots to conference champs that likely would get at-large slots so 13 slots left.

If UCA wins over Sam, Sam does not get to 7 D1 wins and has a very steep hill to climb.

Northern Iowa is highly ranked but has to beat Southern Illinois to get to 7 D1 wins. Panthers will be favored but no easy task to get the win.

So, maybe 5 at-large from the Top 13 above (ignore Sam for now), so only 8 slots remain.

From the #14-20 above, ignore the two Ivy League teams and all 5 others can make at-large, so only 3 slots to go.

From the remainder, only UCA and Fordham have 7 D1 wins now and others stuck at 6. Count on at least one totally off the wall selection that everyone scratches their head over, so only 2 left.

Need to beat Sam and not plan on committee generosity.

I like you assessment of the situation. I agree, win and we've got a great shot at getting in, but drop this game and I'm willing to bet that it's over.