Northwestern: A Quick First Look

This is a huge game for the Bears. HUGE!

Northwestern’s only FCS loss this season was at home to McNeese and by only two points, 18-20. We barely got by the Cowboys. And the Demons have won three straight after that.

Last week they beat Texas State by jumping out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. They won 23-10 even though they only had 290 yards of offense. Texas State lost three fumbles (two inside the redzone), threw a pick and was just 1-of-5 in the redzone, including THREE missed field goals.

It was a pretty strange game on paper for the Bobcats. Texas State’s quarterback (also their leader in rushes) threw for just 65 yards in the game, completing 12 passes for 5.4 yards per. The team’s leading rusher only had 7 carries in the game, but he had 104 yards. The qb and another rb carried the ball 18 and 17 times. They totalled 247 yards rushing.

The last four Texas State possessions all reached the redzone. And they ended like this:

• fumble
• fumble
• missed fg
• downs

Yikes. Looks like Northwestern got lucky like we did against McNeese.

The Playoff Picture

Heading into the final three games, we know that any loss almost definitely knocks the Bears out of the playoff picture. But, Purple Thunder has asked an interesting question:

Question: If we were to win out and finish 2nd in the SLC, what are our chances of getting an at-large bid to the national playoff? Would it be influenced by a top 25 ranking, power rating, or what?

Here’s my response —

The SLC is a mid-tier FCS conference, currently 8th in FCS RPI (out of 15) according to RealTimeRPI.

Having said that, in 2009 and 2005, 2004 and 2002, the conference got two teams in.
And in 2001, there were even three SLC teams in the playoffs.

2009 – McNeese was the second team in with 9-3 (6-1).
2005 – Nicholls got in with a 6-4 (4-1) record.
2004 – Northwestern 8-4 (4-1)

Going back to 2003, every time an SLC team finished with a one-loss conference record, they got into the playoffs.

We’re currently 35th in the FCS in RPI. So, we’ve still got some serious work to do to get into the top ~20. Winning could help since Northwestern and Texas State aren’t terribly far behind in RPI. But, I think we’d still need some help from other teams above us losing. Someone with a math degree would have to run those numbers.

(Yes, I know that you just have to win the next one before you worry about anything else, but that doesn’t mean we as fans have to ignore the possibilities.)