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The Lumberjacks come to Conway and The Stripes on the 13th.

A couple stat comparisons for close players


Breylin Smith QB G 9 ATT 314 COMP 203 INT 9 TD 25 YDS 2721
Trae Self QB G 9 ATT 291 COMP 189 INT 5 TD 20 YDS 2435



Tyler Hudson POS WR G 9 REC 56 YDS 1152 TD 8
Xavier Gipson POS WR G 8 REC 57 YDS 1013 TD 11

They have a stouter defense than we do, but we have a better overall offense. Although, the gap between our offenses is much smaller (UCA 464.6 YPG vs SFA 423.7) than the gap between our defenses (UCA 377.7 YPG allowed vs SFA 314.6).

The Bears are going to need to put on a show to win and convince anyone that they belong in the playoffs.

SFA's season to date summary.....

W vs Tarleton, 20-10
L @ Texas Tech, 22-28
W vs Mississippi Valley State, 58-13
W vs Lincoln (CA), 61-13
L vs SHS (in Houston), 20-21
L @ JSU, 24-28
W @ Dixie State, 37-20
W vs ACU, 41-27
W vs EKU, 31-17

Tarleton is 5-4.....good opening week win by Jacks
TTU not having a good year at 2-4/5-4 but still close loss to P5 on the road is impressive...compare to our opening loss to A-State who is having a terrible season at 0-5/1-8....
MVSU is their UAPB win....
Lincoln is their Texas Wesleyan win...
SHS escaped SFA...impressive given what we have seen of #1 Sam...
Road loss to JSU is a weak spot given how we handled JSU on the road...
Dixie State is 0-9....
ACU game is a fair comparison although Jacks won at home while we were on the road...
EKU is also fair comparison as Jacks won at home and we lost.....

Since I can still not explain how we lost to EKU, maybe the best comps are the SHS and JSU games. However, as we know JSU outcome was heavily impacted by the two Pick6s by Bears....more than a little unusual....

So, maybe Sam is the "best game film" to study....

Jacks led 20-6 after Q3 and Kats scored two Q4 TDs to come from behind including a 2pt conversion....we nearly tied the game late but came up a little short....our defense since then and after the EKU game has really stepped it up....

SFA made 2/3 FGAs but missed a 51yd FGA with 40 seconds left in game....

SHS rushed for 67 while SFA ran for 96....UCA rushed for 38 vs 195 for SHS...

SHS passed for 222 and SFA for 215....UCA passed for 288 vs 283 for SHS...

SFA punted for 54yd avg....excellent...

SHS 3-13 on 3rd down conversion while SFA was 7-17.....UCA was 5-13 and SHS was 9-18....

UCA had two INTs while SHS had none....

Bears played SHS before the run game got going which should be important vs SFA....got to avoid TOs.....

By the stats this should be a very close game.....I think Bears defense is playing much better than vs SHS and EKU and the run game has been potent since these games....probably still need Hayden to hit a couple FGs....

Sagarin shows this game a dead heat...both teams have to win to keep post-season hopes alive....both have three game win streaks going....

This figures to be a tall order to get a win....last chance for a win over SFA for the near future.....win TO and special teams.....run the ball well....weather looks to be good football weather...however, temp expected to drop to chilly by Q4....having a lead into Q4 should be an advantage as temp drops....should be one of the best FCS matchups today.....

Bears by 32-31

Go Bears!!

Maybe after I can study the stats closer I'll feel differently but we just got beat tonight by a team that played better....and I thought we played well....we just could not stop the SFA RB...quick and very hard to get to the ground....on the other hand we just could not seal the edge which has dogged us all season....too many yards after first contact outside the tackles....SFA QB may have been the best we have seen this season or close to it....not flashy but efficient......then again we could not score late with 4 tries from SFA 2.....missing LW made a big difference in how SFA defended receivers....hats off to Enlow and Perkinson for their efforts....Hudson was just bracketed all night by DBs....glad to see us actually use the TEs for more than blocking on LOS....targeted Short 20 yards down the seam and 25+ down sideline to Camargo.....plus I do not recall ever seeing us use a true TE as the far wide out on the sideline even thought he still was a blocker....lots of little things added up but the first play that went 73 yards for a TD showed how much we missed not having Godfrey's speed tonight...plus the totally unexplained roughing penalty on JW Jones that negated an INT and shifted the momentum late in Q2 after we had worked so hard to get it after that first play....

Ifs and buts..... with a win we would have been tied with EKU atop ASUN and tied with them for #2 in AQ7.....

My impression watching the game was that SFA was the best team we have played this season with possible exception of Mo State...