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Sagarin ratings, albeit thin after only a few games, shows UCA at 45 and Idaho State at 40....that makes for a 2-3 point prediction in UCA's favor.....of interest both ISU and UCA are 0-2 with strength of schedule of 53 for UCA and 55 for ISU...note that Kennesaw State has a 30 SOS, 0-2 rating, a loss to a Top30 (like UCA) but a rating of 51...

ISU lost @ UNLV in their opener by 52-21 and then lost @ San Diego State by 38-7....this is the Bengals 2022 home opener.....

The game is in Pocatello is about 4500 feet in elevation (compare to Boulder at about 5400)....expect some elevation effect probably late in the game...as I recall we played very well at Boulder a few years back .....

The football field is inside Holt Arena that seats 12,000...see pic and info at:

https://pocatello.net/holt-arena-idaho-state-university/

ISU has some videos at:

https://isubengals.com/sports/football

Bengals are also a past national champion in football winning the old I-AA (now D2) in 1981 the season after going 0-11......they defeated Eastern Kentucky in the tile game by 34-23...quite a turnaround...

Thanks to BearonCampus for the link to ISU's preseason Youtube team preview (also found at 2022 topic):

https://youtu.be/ZDUrZN2Wkzs

Head Coach Charlie Ragle is in his first year with ISU ..this is his 23rd year in coaching that has combined high school stints, including 63-7 at Chaparral HS in Scottsdale, Arizona and since 2012 assistant coach positions at Arizona and Cal...see more at:

https://isubengals.com/staff-directory/charlie-ragle/500

For what it's worth a summary of 2021 stats as follows:

ISU/Opp
Points per game: 15/34
Rush yards: 122/174
Pass yards: 188/256
3rd down%: 38/49
4th down%: 53/67
Sacks by: 7/39

Home attendance was 3700 per game for 5 home games....

Game results from 2021...record was 1-10....pretty challenging schedule...

9/4 University of North Dakota L 14-35 4,667
9/11 at University of Nevada L 10-49 23,965
9/25 Sacramento State L 21-23 5,997
10/2 at Northern Arizona University L 17-48 9,713
10/9 UC Davis W 27-17 5,206
10/16 at Portland State University L 10-31 1,809
10/23 at Montana State University L 9-27 19,297
10/30 Weber State L 17-40 2,500
11/6 at BYU L 14-59 63,470
11/13 at Cal Poly L 29-32 5,651
11/20 University of Idaho L 0-14

The UCA "depth chart" was summarized in the post of the Mo State game...

Below is a summary for ISU looking at upperclassmen and transfers..

QB:

The entire QB room listed shows 6 players with 2 FR, 3 SO and one JR (6'2 from Wyoming)....one SO is from Chadron State (6'2)....

SO Hunter Hays (6'4 206) played vs UNLV and was 7-13-61 with one TD and rushed 13-29...vs San Diego State he got most of the snaps for 18-30-140 and rushed 4-12....

JR Tyler Vander Waal (6'4 222) is the transfer from Wyoming...he was 7-13-130 with a TD and an INT and 5 sacks vs ULNV to open 2022....was only 2-5-84 with a TD vs San Diego State.....played in three games in Fall 2021 season then missed remainder due to injury....he was Big Sky Newcomer of Year in Spring 2021 season.....Appeared in six games ... threw for 1,843 yards... 12 touchdowns ... completed 116 passes on 215 attempts ... rushed for three touchdowns ... averaged 307 passing yards per game ... Second-Team all- conference ... Season high of 56 rushing yards against Southern Utah ... longest rush of 14 yards against Southern Utah ... Two rushing touchdowns against Eastern Washington ... Season high of 409 passing yards against Eastern Washington ... Season high of 74 longest passing yards against Weber State ... Three passing touchdowns against Southern Utah....

TE:

2 JRs listed at 6'3-6'4 and 277 and 266...

OL:

5 JR with 3 largest from 6'3-6'7 all about 320......one from Arkansas State and another from Washington State...1 SO transfer from Utah at 6'3 242....one SR at 6'5 290...

DL:

2 SR at about 6'1 and 274 and 299....one JR at 6'4 250 from Western Carolina....

LB:

3 SR at 6'0 with avg about 230....one transfer from Eastern New Mexico....one SR at 6'0 205 from a community college

DB:

One SR at 5'11....one SO at 6'2 from Montana State....one FR at 5'9 from Colorado State

The roster is heavily weighted to FR and SO.....of course, some of them may be very good .....

Rough comparison to UCA:

QB: ISU looks to have an edge at QB.....
TE: Even
OL: Even
DL: UCA
LB: Slight edge to UCA
DB: Even

2022 game stats do not give much against vs two FBS opponents...still if you want to study ISU to date see link below:

https://isubengals.com/documents/2022/9/10/Report_Book__4_.pdf

....however, special teams are a little clearer....

ISU is 4/4 on PATs and has not tried a FG.....punt returns 0-0 for ISU and 9-89 by opponents....KO return for ISU only 1-20 and opponents 4-123 (30+ yd avg)....net KOs avg for ISU at 30 and opponents at 40....ISU has forced 5 sacks and given up 7....ISU had avg only 38 yds per game....

UCA has had serious breakdowns in KO returns (run back by Mo State and a couple nice returns by Ole Miss)...serious miscues vs Ole Miss in punting.....punting itself has been solid.....PAT/FGs iffy which is very unusual....the two missed FGs at Mo State were damaging but Ray bounced back last week vs Ole Miss....not much return yardage by Bears but decent punt coverage...

Until UCA has a solid game on STs I hesitate to see where they are more than even with an opponent...

This is the game UCA needs to break out on offense, clean up STs and step up a notch on secondary play.....this game may come down to the defense playing really well and getting TOs and stops....that would likely lead to a win....Go Bears!!

https://www.idahostatejournal.com/sports/arkansas-sports-writer-sam-lane-scouts-central-arkansas-isus-next-opponent/article_281e42c2-3536-11ed-8150-bf2c1bec4fd0.html

ADG reporter Sam Lane picks UCA 27-21 in interview with Pocatello newspaper....

Bears 31-16 winner
Nice performance on the road in Idaho
Congrats to all …

Very good PERFORMANCE indeed! Go Bears!!

Best game of season for sure.....good to see both run game and pass game effective....159 rush (Hale's 75 yd jaunt helped there) and 24-29 passing for 259 terrific and no INTs....special teams much improved outing...being inside and at altitude helped kicking.....the RB trio of Hale/James/Smith ran 29-151 and 9-80 receiving.....total of 231....enjoy this one for a bit then get ready for next week...Go Bears!!

https://ucasports.com/news/2022/9/19/football-bears-nab-three-asun-weekly-honors.aspx

BEARS NAB THREE ASUN WEEKLY HONORS

CONWAY, Ark. _ The University of Central Arkansas Bears nabbed three of the four ASUN Conference Player of the Week honors on Monday following Saturday's 31-16 road victory over Idaho State.

Junior linebacker Corley Hooper was named the ASUN Defensive Player of the Week, sophomore running back Darius Hale earned the ASUN Offensive Player of the Week honor and redshirt freshman defensive back Sean Smith was named the ASUN Freshman of the Week.

Hooper, a transfer from Itawamba Community College and a native of Ecru, Miss., finished with seven tackles, including 1.5 tackles for loss and a half sack. He also intercepted his first pass in the end zone in the first quarter that squelched an Idaho State drive and scooped up a fumble and scored a third-quarter touchdown. Hooper was an honorable mention for the STATS Perform National Defensive Player of the Week.

Hale, from Pearland, Texas and the reigning ASUN Freshman of the Year, scored all three of UCA's offensive touchdowns. He had scoring runs of 2 and 1 yards and also caught a 13-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Will McElvain, who completed 24 of 29 passes for 259 yards.

Smith, a redshirt freshman from Arlington, Texas, had his first interception late in the third quarter and also added two kickoff returns for 37 yards.