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Let's refresh ourselves on the Jacks....

5-4 overall an d2-1 in WAC....however only 4 D1 wins ....

L - JSU @ Montgomery, 17-42
W - @ Alcorn State, 31-27
L - @ La Tech, 17-52
W - Warner University, 98-0 (NAIA)
L - Sam Houston State at Houston, 16-17....Kats scored in Q4 for the win
W - Abilene Christian, 41-38...kicked a 51yd FG as time expired for the win
W - Tarleton, 41-24...sealed win with a 17-7 Q4 in a close game
W - @ Southern Utah, 41-38...QB topped a 70 yd drive with a 21yd TD run with 6:14 left
L - Utah State, 44-47....UT scored the go-ahead TD on a 75 yd drive with 47 ticks left...Jacks ran 8 plays in last 47 seconds and got to UT1 but missed on pass as time expired (why not kick the FG with a good kicker?)

Note Sagarin had SFA a 7-8 point favorite at home over UT...

Remaining games vs UCA and a 2nd game @ ACU.

The season started off awkwardly but the last 5 games Jacks are 3-2 and scoring like the SFA we know from the past (and giving up points!).

Summary Stats (includes Warner game so inflated on offense for sure)

SFA/OPP

Total Offense: 435/420
Rush: 164/191
Pass: 271/229
Run % of Total Plays: 53%/55%
3rd down%: 45%/39%
4th down%: 62%/55%
Redzone %: 82%/84%.....OPP score TD 74% of RZ scores


Stats leaders:
QB Trae Self: 156-260-17TDs-4INTs + 66-236(gross)-5TDs......note 3 other QBs have played and are 21-33-305-5-1

RB Jerrell Wembley: 99-626 (gross)-5, long 57 + 11-153-1, long 37 receiving
RB Miles Reed: 117-547(gross)-2, long 48 + 16-166-1, long 28

WR Xavier Gibson: 51-938-6, long 67 + 8-67-1, long 26 rush + 9-277 (avg 31) punt return with 2 for TDs, long 85

WR Moe Wedman: 21-348-5, long 85
WR Darryle Simmons: 17-206-1, long39

4 others have 10 or more receptions

P Max Quick avg 41yd per punt with 7>50 and 8 in 20....2 blocked

Note...QB Self has 3 punts for 41yd avg with 2 in 20

PK Chris Campos 17-20 FGs, long 51and 5-8 >40 and 41-41 PATs and leads team in scoring with 92

Punt Returns.....3 for TDs and 3 different players have returns >50 yards..SFA has given up no returns for TD and opponents avg 8 yd per return with long of 15...

Defense.....52 TFL including 20 sacks...RJ Thompson has 6.5 TFL and 5 sacks and Marje Smith has 4....Edward Bobino has 6 TFL with 2 sacks...Amad Murray has 6.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks...Myles Heard has whopping 73 tackles and Jermain Brown is 2nd with 43.....looks like defense has 5 blocked punts.....

Just as reminder.....WAC/ASUN Power Ratings thru Week 10:

1. EKU, .7540
2. APU, .7295
3. SFA, .7156
4. ACU,.6594
5. KSU, .6504
6. Tarleton, .5635
7. UCA, .5062
8. S Utah, .4197
9. Utah Tech, .3791
10. UNA, .1578

So, if UCA wins out we win the ASUN (each us and JSU would be 4-1 in ASUN) ..we would then be FCS playoff eligible....but ratings would probably still have SFA and/or ACU above us for the AQ bid...then we would have beaten everyone above us in the ratings except EKU and would be out....

Stop Xavier Gibson from big plays receiving and kick returns, slow down QB Trae Self and have Hale and James running hard (ie, o-line playing well), and leave with a win....very possible....

I believe Acri said on the game broadcast last week that Hale was dressed and available (but never played)...if so, then surely he will gets reps this game...

These teams are pretty similar but SFA probably has the most accomplished QB in big games....the one point loss to Sam is pretty impressive.....special teams play may be the difference....both teams have good punter and PK...maybe Barnes and Richmond can make some return plays...

If Bears are focused and motivated then a win should be waiting....if they play sloppy, then a long bus ride home....

I go with the Bears by 31-30....

Hale and Smith both back today...all 3 RBs should play per Acri

Congrats on the Win today Bears!

Dominating performance.....offense played well with 174 pass and 233 rush (407 total) and defense was really good as SFA a paltry 73 pass and 185 rush (258 total)...

Holding Trae Self and Xavier Gibson in check was big accomplishment....Kylin James was the star with 155 rush, 88 receiving and 37 return yards for total of 280..the two fumbles needs to be cleaned up.....Jarrod Barnes 67yd kick return was a back breaker.....Demetrius Charles led with 9 tackles and David Walker had 3.5 sacks along with 7 Ts and Logan Jessup also had 7 with a sack....Hayden Ray perfect day with 4/4 PATs and 2/2 FGs....

Nice job....enjoy and start tomorrow getting ready to beat JSU....when this team plays up to its talent and ability they are very very good...JSU is 4-0 in ASUN and we are 3-1....EKU has two ASUN losses after loss to JSU today....let's win and get to 6 D1 wins and make the committee think twice...Go Bears!!

Like I said in a previous post...this bunch is hard to figure out.
When they are locked in and ready to go they are very good indeed.
When they are not...they are pedestrian at best.

Let's hope they stay locked in...

GO BEARS

Bears now own a share of the ASUN Conference championship with a chance to win it outright next Saturday.

CSJ Sagarin 2022 NCAA FCS Playoff Projection-Nov. 13

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/ ... on-nov-13/

Power rankings from the WAC website. Looks like it incorrectly lists us as 3-2 in conference: https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/o ... fe97f0.jpg

When the Bears play up to their talent they are definitely a Top 20 FCS team and maybe Top 15...first we have to get a 6th win to be FCS playoff eligible and then hope for an at large invite......ratings like Sagarin are not determinative (only the Committee's vote counts) but I have to believe good ratings from well established services make an impression as does SOS.....8 wins over teams with avg SOS of 250 is just not the same as 6 wins teams who played P5 and the better G5 teams as OOC plus other good OOC FCS teams on the road that avg SOS of 150....

It seems we are unlikely to get the ASUN/WAC last time i looked at the ratings being used...

Still, let's beat JSU, have sole possession of ASUN title, have 6 D1 wins and improve ratings a little more....make the Committee act to exclude us and not give them an easy out...on to the Jax State game...Go Bears!!