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I won't lie:

I looked at our schedule and circled three teams: SELA, SHSU, and McNeese. I figure if we went 2-1 with those, the last 3 weeks of our season would be a cake walk and we'd definitely be in the playoffs.

Instead, we get:

Lamar - 2 wins over ranked opponents in back to back weeks.
UIW - Where did these guys come from?
ACU - Still proving to be dangerous

Yes, every scenario has shifted. I like the thought of us having the chance to win out-right versus getting in a 3 way tie and hoping to have our name drawn from a hat.

And only one of the 4 games left are ranked.........will make zero difference in how the games play out........

Remaining games......lots of football left..........SLC could well end up with only one team in playoffs.....only McNeese and UCA have less than three losses on season.....and that will change after Saturday......hard to see how SLC gets two 3 loss teams in.......maybe not even one.......

UCA.....4-1/5-2

@McNeese
Lamar
Incarnate Word
@ACU

McNeese State.....4-1/5-2

UCA
@Southeastern
@Northwestern State
Lamar

SHS.......3-2/4-3

Southeastern
@Incarnate Word
ACU
@HBU

Incarnate Word......4-1/4-3
{UIW press release says fully eligible for NCAA post season but they have a game vs Iowa State on 12/1 which ISU says is to give Cyclones a 12th game and chance for 6 D1 wins....they will only have 8 SLC games.........they can sure be the spoiler.....Why do they get 12 games themselves?}

@Nicholls
SHS
@UCA
North Alabama
@Iowa State

Nicholls ...3-2/4-3

Incarnate Word
@HBU
SFA
Southeastern

I agree.

I've been stating on AGS board that the SLC may get 2 teams in max. I could see us getting only one, the AQ (hopefully us).

I like to dream. I like to think through all of this. My ideal scenario is this:

UIW wins this week vs Nicholls and all beats SHSU (huge accomplishment if they do). We beat McNeese and Lamar. That would setup a top 25 match-up on the Stripes. That would also give us two top 25 wins (McNeese and UIW).

Realistically, but assuming we win out, I see the conference maybe getting one more team in. It would be a toss-up between Nicholls and SHSU, with the nod probably going to Nicholls based on the head-to-head. But as you said, getting a 3 loss team in may be tough.

I believe they gave up their game with UNA to play Iowa St. However, that doesn't relieve concerns about a potential playoff appearance. I wonder if anyone from UIW has those concerns?

On another note, we need to schedule UNA as soon as possible. Those were some of the best games we played while D2 (sad to say, many on the losing side)

With the improvements our O-Line is making and our ability to stuff the run is reaching 2016 levels, we should be favored to win out. I would say that on the road in Abilene is going to be difficult in their new stadium. Adam Dorrell is a flat out winner. He lead Northwestern Missouri St. to 3 D2 titles in 6 years. ACU is a sleeping giant that is starting to wake up...

I remember UCA vs UNA in 2005. We won the regular season game, and then lost in the quarterfinals. The games played out very similarly (if I remember correctly).

Regarding UIW, I'm sure there is a provision in their contract that if they make the playoffs the game is cancelled without penalty. Of course, financially, that is not a win for them.

All UIW has to do to keep the Iowa State game paycheck is throw the UCA game...

I mean we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars, national exposure, playing late in the year....

This weekend definitely complicates things, and possibly knocks us out.

McNeese takes the lead.
Winning out we go to 8-3.
SHSU wins out they are 8-3.
Nicholls wins out they are 8-3.

SHSU has a quality win against us, with losses to UND (at home) and Lamar.
Nicholls has wins against SHSU, UIW, and FBS Kansas (with loss to ACU).
Our best "quality wins"...well, maybe UIW will count.

Even if McNeese stumbles again, and we end up in a multi-way tie, I believe they will get the AQ based on the longest time since being in the playoffs.

Only hope is to win out and roll the dice with the committee.

Edit to say: Our only conference losses have been on the road, by a combined 5 points. Not sure that will matter.

fcs.stats still has the bears projected in the playoffs along with McNeese and Nichols. I'd be surprised if that verifies...

Another interesting (or not interesting because it would not be a fun matchup) is if Nichols and UCA make the field, there's an good chance they will be paired in the 1st round due to the fact that the teams didn't play in the regular season. I would imagine the game would be in Thibodaux.

SLC is a mess........

McNeese State 5-2/6-3......@Northwestern and home vs Lamar
Nicholls State 5-2/6-3..........SFA and Southeastern
IWU 5-2/5-4..@UCA
UCA 4-3/5-4.........must win out in any scenario...IWU and @ACU
SHS 4-3/..........ACU and @HBU
ACU 4-3/5-4.......@SHS and home UCA
Lamar 4-3/5-4............HBU then @McNeese
SLU 4-4/4-6......@Nicholls

So, if Bears win out we will be 6-3 in SLC.............

If McNeese wins out then 7-2......if they split, then 6-3..if they lose out then 5-4

Nicholls same as McNeese

We need ACU to beat SHS so Kats have 4 losses.......then we beat Cats and they have 4 losses...

Need Southeastern to beat Nicholls

It is possible at the end UCA is 6-3....McNeese is 6-3.....Nicholls is 6-3....Lamar is 6-3........either ACU or SHS can be 6-3 but not both..........

We look to be out of playoffs in best case......... McNeese and Lamar and Sam all have tie breaker over us......still be nice to tie for SLC championship..........

JRK, I don't see playoffs happening. I could see the conference only getting 1 team in now, and that is the AQ.

I was impressed with this team this year. I knew coming in that this would be a tough season (new coach, new starting QB, young OL). But we looked promising. Injuries and inexperience finally took its toll.

The next two years, though, look out.

Don't think we'll do this, but with the new redshirt rule I would strongly consider starting McCray at QB these last two games now that the playoffs look to be out of the picture.