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I usually don't start these threads, and not to step on any toes, but I started looking into how we would match up. Here's what I've come up with:

Our Rush Offense vs Their Rush Defense

They allow 150 yards per game. We're rushing for about 70. While this seems bad, we use the rush when we need to. Carlos and the line showed that they can get the movement when needed.

Advantage: Slight edge to UCA, just because they allow more than what we usually need

Our Pass Offense vs Their Pass Defense

We average almost 315 a game. They allow 230 a game. They have given up a lot of touchdowns and probably have not played a team that has the air attack we do.

Advantage: UCA

Our Rush Defense vs Their Rush Offense

We allow only 146 yards per game on the ground. That number has probably been skewed a bit by mobile quarterbacks and a great #27 for SHSU. Overall, our run D has been good. They average 180 yards, so we are beating their average. I think this bodes well for us.

Advantage: UCA

Our Pass Defense vs Their Pass Offense

They average 236, we allow 294. That bodes well for Lamar.

Advantage: Lamar

3rd/4th Down Conversions

Lamar only converts on around 32% of third downs, which is close to our 38% conversation. The big difference is they convert nearly 50% of their 4th downs.

Advantage: Lamar

Special Team

We're 10 of 11 going for three. They are 13 of 19. This screams to me that they start to sputter out when getting into scoring areas, and possibly red zone conversions. They have only managed 15 touchdowns in 27 times in the red zone, where UCA is 24 or 32. They are forced to go for 3 a lot and miss some.

Advantage: UCA, both from defense and from special teams

UCA keys to victory:

1. Control their run game. This seams to be where they score the most. Shut that down, and make them play in their weaker area.

2. Hold them in the red zone. They're conversion stats are not good. Even if they get down there, don't give up the easy score. We have not been great here, it will be time for our defense to show up when they drive deep down the field.

3. Spread the ball around. Winningham is out, but we're deep. We have too many weapons for them to cover all of them.

4. Win the turnover battle. They fumble. A lot. We need to take advantage of it.

5. If we start slow, make them start slow too. Don't get down 2 scores and have to claw our way back. Good defense to start, give our offense time to settle in. Offense can help by sustaining some drives early.

Nice analysis

Great analysis. I think Nathan Brown has to establish a bit of fire in the locker room, he needs to get this team focused to start games strong and manage the ball well.

If you listen to his recent interviews, they are trying everything they can to figure out what is going on with the first half. They are even giving their typical halftime "snacks" out during the pregame locker room time. It is puzzling to the coaches as well.

I'll say this: I thought we did a lot of things well offensively in the first half Saturday, but we just could not get beyond stalled drives. Starting deep in our own territory never helps. Sammy definitely was killing us with field position. If we convert just one of those first half drives into a touchdown, then being down one score going into half does not look nearly as bad.

Defensively, we got burned early, our secondary stepped up for most of the second half, and we took back momentum. If the team can make the adjustments slightly earlier, we'll be in better sports going into Q3.

SNACKS!?!?!?! What on earth? I have never heard of that before.

Makes sense from an athletic performance perspective. You are burning calories, particularly glycogen, with exertion. You need something to replenish. It makes sense to get something that is possibly a fast release and slow release carbohydrate and possibly some fat/protein mix in there.

I mean I guess at the college level it does, I am sure there is a fine line and they get just a bite of something. I always knew when I ate something during physical activity it would make me sick. I am sure they have certain foods they give them. Maybe like a piece of fruit or something.

This will be a tough road game vs. Lamar...the Bears are pretty beat up,
with the loss of # 5, #41, #75 and others I can't recall. Some new faces
will need to rise to the top when their name is called and I have no doubt
that this will happen.

At UCA...they don't make excuses, they just plug in the next guy on the
depth chart and win. That is what the program is about.

Unlike other programs they don't whine like a 13 year old girl as to why they
can't win a game...they just get the job done. It is a pleasure to be associated
with a program that has excelled for over 40 years at 3 different levels...from
NAIA to NCAA D2, to NCAA D1 FCS. All the success on the field is shadowed
only by the success in the classroom with a .971 APR.

The only shame is what a lot of UCA alums have missed by not supporting
their Alma Mater...

I am a former player and I am PROUD TO BE A BEAR FOR LIFE...…………

BPSG
__________________
GO BEARS

Amen, Foot......

Agreed, FOOT. I was not a player but was part of the BMB for 4 years. My wife has two degrees. Our roots run deep inside of UCA. This is the most exciting D1 program in the state, and has been a consistent winning program over the years.

So many of the people I went to school with focus elsewhere. They are missing the excitement. Unless you are the Alabama's, Clemson's, Ohio States of the world, the best most teams at FBS are playing for a bowl game. Nothing beats the excitement of playoff football, though. They are missing out on it all focusing on a team that has not won a conference game in 2 years.

As for me and my house, we will cheer on the Bears!

Great post. You encapsulated so much of what makes this football program special. Granted I get frustrated with them sometimes during games, as we all do at times, but we are very fortunate to be cheering for such a consistently successful program, on AND off the field.

I graduated from UCA a few years ago and have been going to games for many years. I get frustrated when I see so many UCA graduates go off to support other schools, mainly a certain school up in Fayetteville. I don’t understand it, but I’m glad I don’t. I’m going to support MY school. A school that wins consistently and has become known as one of the more respected schools in the entire FCS.

I still think it’s hilarious how you can turn on local sports radio and hear discussion about a certain two win team for three straight hours or the glory days of 1964 or 1969, but that’s a whole different subject that we are all too well aware of, so I won’t get into that

Anyways, off my soapbox and onto Lamar! Go Bears!!!

Not sure what to expect in this one. Bears are banged up on offense and losing winningham for probably the year is going to hurt. However, Hampton, Hudson and co will provide enough weapons

Lamars starting QB got hurt in their game against Incarnate Word and I’ve not heard of he’ll be ready Saturday. If our D can hold up against statistically one of the less prolific offenses, it should give breylin enough chances to get points up (hopefully sooner rather than later).

Bears 27
Cardinals 20

Yes, losing Winningham is a hit, but from watching the rest of the game Saturday, maybe it is a good thing that now Breylin is looking at other guys. It may be a blessing in disguise.

It also makes it harder for opposing defenses to know who to watch closely. We gave so much attention and looks to #5 that they knew to key on him. Know we have 3-4 playmakers on the field at any point and it will cause confusion.

Mr. Hampton is plenty capable...

Lamar's schedule so far:

Beat Bethel(TN)- 65 - 16 (NAIA TEAM) (I get beating an NAIA team)
Beat MVSU 23-20 in OT. (Struggling with this team is a mystery. They are 2-6 now)
Lost to FBS Texas A&M 3-63 (as expected)
Lost to SLU 34 - 45. (SLU is bipolar. OK. I can see a loss here.)
Lost to SFA at home 24-17 (Don't understand this loss. At home. To a winless team)
Beat ACU 27-24 at home (Good win by Lamar here)
Beat SHSU 20-17 in 3OTs (Good win. Close too)
Lost to UIW 17-35 (UIW games have been close. This one wasn't.)

So if you minus their NAIA and FBS games for obvious reasons you get victories by:
3
3
3

Losses by:
11
7
18


So either Lamar is playing well and winning by 3 or they are off. If they don't play beyond the level of just winning by 3 the Bears will bite them!