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I feel pretty good about starting this thread at this point. Even if we go 1-2 in our last 3, our wins should get us an at-large. 2-1 and we're definitely in. 3-0 and we're a national seed.

What we have left

vs Southeastern Louisiana (5-3, 4-2 SLC)

If there is team that has a tougher end to their schedule than us, it is SLU. They come to the Stripes on Saturday and then have Nicholls at the end of their schedule. They have to split these two games and beat ACU to have a playoff shot.

vs SFA (1-8, 1-5 SLC)

As we learned with NWST, we cannot take the bottom dwellers of the conference lightly. While SFA has nothing to look forward to in regards to playoffs, they would love nothing more than to play spoiler. I'm glad we have this one on the stripes. Remember 2 years ago when we had to stage a late comeback to beat them? Here's to hoping we do not repeat that performance.

at Incarnate Word (5-4, 4-3 SLC)

UIW lost a tough one today vs a good Nicholls team. They looked good, especially in their passing attack. The last drive was a head scratcher, though. UIW has to win out to have a shot, which is tough with an FBS team still on their schedule (albeit, a not very good team).

Making some assumptions of a UIW loss against New Mexico State, they would only be playing spoiler. That means our only quality win left would be if we can win this coming week against Southeastern.

If we win out:

The way the FCS is going, winning out puts us around a 5-6 seed as of right now. 1-3 are pretty much locked up. Just above us is likely to have some more movement. We should sit at #7/#8 in the two polls considered (although I would argue the AGS poll is the best FCS poll).

If we go 2-1

If we're going to drop one, losing to SLU is the best one to lose. Don't lose the last game, that may not sit well with the committee. Sure, we'll still be in, but we may be playing a rematch with APSU. My only hope is that with 2-1 and a good bid we host.

If we go 1-2

This now comes down to who did we beat, who did we lose to.

Teams we beat:
FBS Western Kentucky
(as of now) Ranked SHSU
(as of now) Ranked APSU

"Bad" Losses

Assuming we beat SFA and lose the other two, the only "bad" loss would be to UIW, who I would assume would end up 7-5. This bodes well for us.

Week 10 playoff projections.

Nobowls has us a a #8 seed for the second week in a row.

http://nobowls.com

CollegeSportsMadness.com has us a #5 seed.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fc ... acketology

Interesting that Nobowls has no other SLC team in, which I think is wrong. I guess they are expecting us to run the table and SHSU to not (or Nicholls).

If SLU and Sam lose this weekend they would both be out IMO.

Absolutely. SHSU has to win out, but they have an easier road to do it.

SLU needs to win 2 of 3. I hope our young men make it harder for them this weekend.

While I think we have the best chance to make it, I think we have to win one more to make it a lock.

Lose 3 and we are 7-5. Ouch.
Lose 2 and we are 8-4 with FBS win and two top 25 wins. Close but at large for sure.
Lose 1 and we win conference and either get autobid or at large for sure.

SLU 4-2 (Still has UCA, ACU and Nicholls) One loss and they are out.
Nicholls 4-2 (Still has HBU, McNeese, and SLU.) One loss and they are out.
Sam 4-2 (Still has ACU, Northwestern, and HBU). One loss and they are out.

SLU has it tough with those last 3 games. If we beat them then we have a two game conference lead over them.
Nicholls should beat HBU but either McNeese or SLU will give them their third conference loss.
Sam has the easiest path. However a loss to ACU this weekend, and it could happen..and they just don't have enough division I wins.

So, I'm hoping for a UCA win (as always), an ACU win, and I see Nicholls having no problem with HBU. So all we have left is to win out and Nicholls to drop one of their last two IMO. That will give us at least a two game cushion for the conference. We've got to take care of SFA even if we defeat SLU. IF we don't beat SLU then we have to win BOTH of our last games to win conference.

So why not just take care of business this weekend?!

BearCountry, great analysis on where we are. The easy path is to win out, be a national seed, enjoy Thanksgiving at home, and then get ready for whoever we play (probably an Austin Peay vs some other regional team).

Here's a breakdown of where the SLC is right now:

Eliminated are Lamar, HBU, SFA, and NWST. There is no path for these to make it to the playoffs.

ACU has a glimmer of hope, but not much. Ending the season with Mississippi State will put them with 5 loses, assuming they win their other games, and most likely eliminate them.

UIW is in the same boat, with a twist: They have a weak New Mexico State FBS team left. If they beat them, and then beat UCA in the final game, they'll get a look for an at-large IF and only if they win this week versus SFA.

SHSU is in a "must win out" scenario and may need some help from us. If they win out, they have 7 D1 wins, a big win over UIW and Nicholls. They would be a team on the bubble, but they will be in the talks. They have the easiest path to the at-large with ACU being their toughest challenge.

McNeese is also a glimmer of hope team. They have two games left, one being Nicholls. Win out and they may be in the at-large discussion. Wins over Nicholls and SLU may be enough to get them a look.

Nicholls has a pretty good shot at an at-large. They have a big win over us and, if they win out, over SLU. However, they must win both of their games to get in (which would eliminate SLU).

Finally is SLU. They must win out. Hopefully we stop their playoffs hopes and are done with it. They have a good OOC win against Jacksonville State. Winning out would have wins over us and Nicholls and definitely will get them in the conversation for an at-large.

In other words: Every other team, but us, must win out. We can afford up to two losses, but a loss to SFA would not help our case for an at-large. If the team that showed up at Lamar shows up the rest of the season, we'll see everyone on 12/7 for a home playoff game as a national seed.

Some have said it on the AGS board, and I agree: UCA with the auto-bid, Nicholls and SHSU as the at-larges. We get 3 out of the SLC at most. If we take care of business but Nicholls/SHSU do not, that reduces our at-larges.

The SLC has been whacky this year...

The SLC is whacky.

Here's what I want. (Time for me to be greedy.)

A win this weekend at home vs. SLU.

Next weekend at home vs SFA not only do I want a win but I want the commish to bring the SLC trophy for us to raise because with only ONE game left the worst we could do is share it with one of two teams with a loss the last week.

I want that trophy AT Estes next Saturday! I want us to play like we want that trophy there next week. Two games fellas. Two straight wins and you can call yourselves CHAMPIONS for the second time in 3 years.

Ok. I'm off my high horse now.....

Potential Playoff Teams

"Selection Process
The NCAA Division I Football Championship provides for a field of 24 teams to compete in a single elimination tournament. Of the 24 teams, 10 conference champions will receive automatic qualifications with the remaining best 10 {14?}teams being selected on an at-large basis by the Division I Football Championship Committee. The top eight teams in the 24-team bracket for the championship are seeded and receive First Round byes. Team pairings are determined according to geographical proximity. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for First Round games or for Second Round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first and second round)."

NOTE - SWAC and Ivy do not participate in playoffs.
MEAC champion plays SWAC champion but other MEAC teams are eligible for at-large.
Pioneer League does not get AQ but other 10 conferences do.


Weber State, 7-2 (5-0 in Big Sky)
Montana, 7-2 (4-1 in Sky)
Sacramento State, 6-3 (4-1 in Sky)
Montana State, 6-3 (3-2 in Sky)
Monmouth, 7-2 (4-0 in Big South)
Kennesaw State, 7-2 (2-1 in BS)
Campbell, 6-2 (3-0 in BS)
James Madison, 8-1 (5-0 in CAA)
New Hampshire, 5-3 (4-1 in CAA)
Richmond, 5-4 (4-1 in CAA)
Villanova, 6-3 (3-3 in CAA)
North Dakota, 5-3 (Independent)
Florida A&M, 8-1 (6-0 in MEAC)
Bethune-Cookman, 6-2 (4-1 in MEAC)
NC A&T, 6-2 (4-1 in MEAC)
North Dakota State, 9-0 (5-0 in MVC)
South Dakota State, 7-2 (4-1 in MVC)
Northern Iowa, 6-2 (4-1 in MVC)
Illinois State, 6-2 (3-2 in MVC)
Central Connecticut, 8-0 (4-0 in NEC)
Duquesne, 6-2 (4-0 in NEC)
Robert Morris, 5-4 (4-0 in NEC)
UT-Martin, 6-3 (4-1 in OVC)
Austin Peay, 6-3 (4-1 in OVC)
SE Missouri, 6-2 (4-1 in OVC)
Holy Cross, 5-4 (3-0 in Patriot)
Lehigh, 4-4 (3-1 in Patriot)
San Diego, 6-2 (5-0 in Pioneer)
Drake, 4-4 (4-1 in Pioneer)
Furman, 6-3 (5-1 in Southern)
Wofford, 5-2 (4-1 in Southern)
The Citadel, 6-4 (4-2 in Southern)
UCA, 7-2 (5-1 in SLC)
SLU, 5-3 (4-2 in SLC)
Nicholls State, 5-4 (4-2 in SLC)
Sam Houston State, 5-4 (4-2 in SLC)

I like your style!

UCA opens at #7 on the playoff listing.

UNI at #6 still has to play #4 SD State. #5 Sac State still has a tough UC Davis on the schedule. If we win out, we may see an improvement to a #6 or #5. We have our work cut out for us and need some help above to get there though.

Glad we got that win over Western Kentucky

Just got a lot more dicey for Bears....very unlikely now to get a first round bye so even getting in means going on the road.....by the way, Austin Peay keeps winning and Illinois State beat #4 South Dakota State….those would make logical matchups with UCA in a first round game....

SLC Standings and Games to Go
After 11/9/19 games

UCA, 5-2/7-3...SFA and @UIW....tiebreaker over SHS, MSU...7 D1 wins with 1 FBS
SLU, 5-2/6-3...@ACU, Nicholls State....tiebreaker over UCA...6 D1
Nicholls, 5-2/6-4...MSU, @SLU....tiebreaker over UCA, UIW...6 D1
SHS, 5-2/6-4....Northwestern State, HBU..tiebreaker over Nicholls, MSU, UIW...5 D1
MSU, 4-3/6-4..@Nicholls,@Lamar...tiebreaker over SLU...6 D1
UIW, 4-4/5-5...@New Mexico State,UCA...tiebreaker over SLU...5 D1

Best case for Bears.....win out and be 7-2/9-3.... tie with SHS but we have the tiebreaker...…..need both Nicholls and SLU to lose one of last two...one will as they play each other in last game....

A nightmare case would be that UCA, SLU, NSU, SHS, MSU and UIW all end up at 5-4...…
We could easily end 6-3 and tie with SLU, NSU, SHS and MSU.....we would be 3rd and may get into playoffs given 8 D1 wins and a FBS win....not a sure thing...

SHS still has a decent route to win outright....if we then end up tied with SLU and NSU we likely would not get into playoffs as 4th SLC team....that would be depressing to be 8-4 with a FBS win and watch on TV

There is obviously not
a dominant team in
the Southland Conf.
this year. 4-way tie for
1st and a bunch 1 game
back.

Don't know how the
playoff committee
will view the league
Outside of the automatic
bid.

My take from the weekend:

UCA played themselves out of a national seed.
UIW lost all chances at playoffs.

The only teams with a chance are UCA, SHSU, SLU, and Nicholls. SLU and Nicholls play each other so one of those have 1 more loss to go. The winner, assuming they win out, are in, possibly as the auto-bid.

Nicholls still has McNeese, which is not an easy game. SLU has ACU, also not a cakewalk. There is a chance that they could both lose their next one and then be out of it, with their season ending game being for bragging rights only.

SHSU has the easy road still. UCA has a tough UIW team still to go. If we win Saturday against SFA, I think we're in. Lose, and even with a win vs UIW, we may be a first 4 out.