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For one, you've got to be ridiculously good to come in from Division II and be picked anything other than last in a Division I conference. Why would coaches and SIDs expect a D-II program that hasn't won much, if any, against D-I competition to step right in and start kicking people around?
Neither the Bears nor Sugar Bears had great seasons a year ago. Neither were guaranteed a spot in their Division II conference's tournament until the last week of the season. The Sugar Bears had a meltdown late in the season (losing six of their last eight) and the Bears struggled for the most part, too. Lest anyone forget, that's a team that scored something like 8 or 12 points in the first half at SAU – who wasn't exactly the league's best team. They were a game away from Tech at 3-13 in GSC play from being the worst.
And the Bears lose most of their production from a year ago. There's no more Darryl Jones, no more Stephin Booth, no more Joey Cortez, no more Chad Wise, no more Aubrey Bruner. That's five guys who did quite a bit a year ago. Factor in the losses of Alexei Korolev, Brandon Lipsey and Scott Martin and in all you're looking at about two-thirds of your scoring gone.
You take a decent team, subtract most of its production, then add a move to Division I and it doesn't really equal up to looking like a good year.
Obviously there are unknowns – like the talent of the newcomers and how well they'll perform right away, and how differently (if any) Rand's philosophy changes given the new competition. But when coming up with preseason prognostications, it's best to guess based on stuff you already know to be evident, not guessing on stuff you're guessing about ... if that makes any sense.
A couple of the newcomers – Marcus Pillow from Russellville and Nate Bowie from ... some JUCO in Kansas – both come in with some pretty gaudy offensive numbers, so it could very well be they're both counted on to step in and give some punch. The downside to that is they're shorter than a lot of people on this board. Drew Haymaker is a big-bodied guy who should be able to contribute nicely on the glass, but whether he can bring an offensive presence is more of a question. And lord knows the Bears are going to need an inside presence. It's not an optimal scenario when Fernando Johnson is likely Option A inside. Great guy, great athlete, limited offensively.
You know you've got a quality guy in LeMar Phillips. Mitch Rueter is probably going to be pretty decent. But both of those guys are likely going to have to play out of position a lot and will find themselves undersized. Fred Campbell returns and is a good defender and adequate scorer with a good mid-range game (the lost art-form) and tall socks, so he has that going for him. He's never really had the chance to carry a big load, so I don't know what he's capable of, but at least he's a good, sound, consistent player.
I don't know what to expect out of newcomers like Durrell Nevells and DaMarcus Bell. They seem to be good jumping-jack guys, and I know that Nevells is the all-time career blocks leader at Three Rivers Community College despite being listed at 6-6. So those guys will need to come in and make some plays defensively and hopefully put the ball in the bucket a time or two.
The thing with Rand's teams are he doesn't necessarily have to have a bunch of scorers. He needs a bunch of defenders and some system guys who can do different things well. But you still have to get your scoring somewhere. Phillips will get some of it, but outside of that the majority of it is going to have to come from new guys. That's not exactly what gets you a lofty preseason ranking.
The Sugar Bears didn't lose nearly as much of their core as the Bears did, and that should serve them well. They played a Division I team last year and played fairly well (at Evansville), but they also played at a Division I team last year (stAte) and played one of the 10 worst games in Sugar Bear history.
Again, you're looking at a team that had a decent season a year ago. Nothing outstanding. And now they're moving up. But the same problems exist that existed in their D-I games last year – a lack of size. They did to get some taller guards in their recruiting class, but you can't just turn the whole show over to the freshmen. That'll get you eaten up. And they're still small inside. That's going to hurt.
And what they also don't have is an established, consistent second threat to Caronica. And until somebody steps up in that role, everbody's going to know to go bring the house at her.
Renita's a fine playmaker but has never been the biggest scoring threat in the world. And while she's ridiculously fast, you're going to find D-I players as fast as her and about 5 inches taller. That makes things increasingly difficult.
Lauren Williams might be that second scoring threat, but she was hit and miss last year. She might give you 15 one night and 3 the next. She does a lot of things well, but never quite got into a rhythm last year to show she can do any one thing exceptionally well.
Mariesha Piggee is a relentless defender, a tough kid and she sure isn't afraid to shoot it, but the question is does she have the repertoire to be a consistent scorer? I think she's got a lot of potential and should improve markedly from her freshman year, but I don't know if we can expect a Caronica-like jump of 12 points or so from freshman to sophomore seasons.
Shannon Oden's got a sweet stroke outside for a big, but she's not the answer offensively. Having not seen the five newcomers, it's hard to guess what they'll do. Sharece Love isn't a big scorer, and I don't think Alex Velazquez is either. Meaghen Kelleybrew and Whitney Betts are some taller perimeter players that might be counted on to come in and score, but with most freshmen you never really know in the preseason what to expect or what the coaches expect.
Brittany Greer showed some flashes of offensive competence in the post last year, but she might be limited in how much she can go this year. And Katie Nicholson didn't really play and is coming off a torn ACL, and has two senior point guards ahead of her so I don't expect her to be the go-to gal.
The X-factor in it all is the 3-headed 3-point monster of Allyson Sample, Allicia Kellogg and Sam Dean. The great thing about long-range bombers is that, whether playing against the UCAFans.com All-Stars or Tennessee, if you get some space you can shoot if you can shoot. If those three can establish early that they'll be dangerous, they'll force defenses to pick them up further out and allow the oft-undersized other Sugar Bears more opportunity to move in space and rely more on quickness than height to get a good look at the basket.
Sample is tall, moves around pretty well when her foot isn't mangled, has a lightning-quick release and can shoot it from (W)NBA range. If she can stay healthy and get in any sort of rhythm she could be a game-changing weapon. And Sam Dean, another girl listed at 5-10, will remind a lot of people around here of a guy named Al Dillard. Well, except that she's white and a she, and has no Hog's snout at midcourt to shoot from. She might be taller than him, and I don't think she can dunk. But other than all that, pretty much a clone. Anyway, I say that to say this – guard her at the bus. She pulls it from 28-30 feet like it's a free throw. I don't know if she can do anything else, but if she can do that with any regularity then that's fine and dandy. And Kellogg, while maybe a little less mobile and needing more room/time to get her shot off, can stand out there and stroke it pretty well herself.
So it may be that no one person establishes herself as a secondary scoring threat, but if you can get any one or any combination of those three clicking deep, it'll open a lot of other things up. Oh, and Caronica was only a 37 percent 3-point shooter a year ago. Lots of deep balls, lots of Renita getting in the paint and dishing off and, hopefully, creating lots of turnovers will be the Sugar Bears' best hope for success this year.
And .... I'm spent.
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